5.9% of Haywards Heath People live in Shared Households.

I had an interesting chat the other day with a Haywards Heath landlord. He said he had been chatting with an architect friend of his who said back in the mid 2000’s, the developments he was asked to draw were a balance of one and two bed properties, compared to today where the majority of the buildings he is designing are more towards two and sometimes three bedrooms. Now of course, this was all anecdotal but it made me think if similar things were happening in the Haywards Heath property market?

This is a really important point as I explained to this landlord, as knowing when and where the demand of tenants is going to come from in the coming decade is just as important as knowing the supply side of the buy to let equation, in relation to the number of properties built in Haywards Heath, Haywards Heath property prices, Haywards Heath yields and Haywards Heath rents.

In 2001, there were 52,000 households with a population of 127,400 in the Mid Sussex District Council area. By 2011, that had grown to 57,400 households and a population of 139,900. This means between 2001 and 2011, whilst the number of households in the Mid Sussex District Council area grew by 10.47%, the population grew by 9.80%

Nothing surprising there then. But, as my readers will know, there is always a but! My analysis of the 2011 Census results, using the most recent in-depth data on household formation (e.g. ‘one person households’, ‘couples/ family households’ or ‘couple + other adults households and multi -adult households’), has displayed a sudden and unexpected break with the trends of the whole of the 20^th Century. There has been a seismic change in household formation in Haywards Heath between 2001 and 2011.

Between 2001 and 2011, the population of Haywards Heath grew, as did the number of Haywards Heath properties (because of new home building). However, the growth rate of new properties built in Haywards Heath was much lower than expected though, but still the population has grown by what was expected, meaning the average household size was larger than anticipated in Haywards Heath. In fact, average household size (i.e. the number of people in each property) in 2011 was almost exactly the same as in 2001, the first time for at least 100 years it had not fallen between censuses. (Since 1911, household size has decreased by around 20% every decade).

Looking at figures specifically for Haywards Heath itself,

·         One person households – 30.1%      

·         Couples/family households – 64.0%

·         Couple + other adults/multi-adult households – 5.9%.

This decline was reflected in large scale shifts in the mix of household types. In particular, there were far more “couple + other adults households and multi -adult households” than expected (5.9% is quite a lot of households). It can be put down to two things; increased international migration and changes to household formation. A particularly important reason for the difference can probably be attributed to the evidence that migrants initially form fewer households (i.e. two couples share one property) than those who have lived in the UK all their lives. Also, changes to household formation patterns amongst the rest of the population, including adult children living longer with their parents and more young adults living in shared accommodation (as can be seen in the growth of HMO properties (Homes of Multiple Occupation).

So, what does all this mean for Haywards Heath Homeowners and Landlords? Quite a lot in fact. There has been a subtle shift to slightly larger households in the last decade, meaning smart landlords might be tempted to buy slightly larger properties to rent out – again good news for homeowners who will get top dollar for their home as they sell on. But now with Brexit, household formation might swing the other way in the next decade? Who knows? Watch this space!

942% - Rise in Mid Sussex Property Prices since 1981.

Roll the clock back 35 years to 1981, and Mrs. T was in power, we had a Royal Wedding, Britain won the Ashes and Bucks Fizz won Eurovision with ‘Making your Mind up’.   Haven’t things changed.  The number of homeowners and property investors who said they wish they had hindsight and bought up every house in Mid Sussex all those years ago, especially when you consider what has happened to Mid Sussex property values, as Mid Sussex Property Values since 1981 have risen by 942%.

Not bad when you consider inflation over the same time period has been 271.9%, meaning in real terms (i.e. after inflation), property values in Mid Sussex are 670.1% higher.   It’s no wonder people can’t afford to buy property anymore and landlords are attracted by bricks and mortar. Yet the changes to the Mid Sussex Property market run much deeper than property value changes as no one could have predicted how the property market has changed in Mid Sussex over the last 30 years.

Looking at the Local Authority data for Mid Sussex District Council in 1981, 16.6% of Mid Sussex people lived in a Council House, whilst today its 10.6%,  a massive drop which can mostly be attributed to Margaret Thatcher allowing Council tenants the right to buy their Council House.  The private rental sector since 1981 has, as one would have expected, also changed.

Nationally they’ve almost doubled, HOWEVER, the proportion of properties privately rented in the Mid Sussex area (i.e. through a private landlord or a letting agency) may not have doubled, but they have seen an increase rising from 10% to 12.8% of property.

So, let us consider those people who own their own home, surely that has had a massive drop?  In 1981, the proportion of people who lived in the Mid Sussex District Council area who owned their own home was 73.2% and today its 74.3%. Not the seismic change most of you were expecting (including myself!).

Home-ownership in the 1980’s and 1990’s in Mid Sussex did in fact rise, but as I have discussed in previous articles in the ‘Mid Sussex Property Market Blog’, that was because nearly every Council tenant was buying their council house. Now there are hardly any Council houses for the younger generation to move into (because of the right to buy scheme) so they have no choice but to privately rent.

And this is why the buy to let market in Mid Sussex is an investment sector that will continue to grow as councils aren’t building council houses in their thousands each year (like they were in the 1950’s/60’s and 70’s).  The Mid Sussex property market is constantly changing and buy to let for too long has been heavily dependent on house price growth, where yield has been almost forgotten.  I see the changes in tax and landlord and tenant law in a different perspective to the sooth-sayers and see it as bringing many opportunities where yield will become more important.  You might need to change your buy to let targets, your methodology to financing or even consider places other than Mid Sussex in which to invest your money, but this will shine a light on investing in properties with healthier yields and create more realistic long term buy to let opportunities, instead of short term growth bets and wagers.

Like Bucks Fizz said in their song, it’s time to make your mind up. The advice I give to my landlords, and also to you my blog reading friends is this; these changes will make some landlords panic, meaning competition for decent Mid Sussex buy to let bargains will reduce as fear of change kicks in and amateur investors flee the market.  These opportunities will provide a more stable platform for knowledgeable and wise Mid Sussex buy to let landlords to thrive in.  If you want to learn more about the Mid Sussex Property Market, feel free to pop in for a coffee at our office for a chat.