Tuesday 31 January 2017

Burgess Hill’s private renting set to hit 1,794 households by 2021 - Is Buy to Let immoral? (Part 1)



Can we blame the 55 to 70-year-old Burgess Hill citizens for the current housing crisis in the town?

Also known as the ‘Baby Boomer Generation’, these Burgess Hill people were born after the end of the Second World War as the country saw a massive rise in births as they slowly recovered from the economic hardships experienced during wartime.

Throughout the 1970’s and 1980’s, they experienced (whilst in their 20’s, 30’s and 40’s) an unparalleled level of economic growth and prosperity throughout their working lifetime on the back of improved education, government subsidies, escalating property prices and technological developments. They have emerged as a successful and prosperous generation.

Yet some have suggested these Burgess Hill baby boomers have (and are) making too much money to the detriment of their children, creating a ‘generational economic imbalance’, where mature people benefit from house-price growth while their children are forced either to pay massive rents or pay large mortgages.

Between 2001 and today, average earnings rose by 65%,
but average Burgess Hill house prices rose by 124.9%.



The issue of housing is particularly acute with the generation called the Millennials, who are young people born between the mid 1980’s and the late 1990’s. These 18 to 30 years, moulded by the computer and internet revolution, are finding as they enter early adult life, very hard to buy a property, as these ‘greedy’ landlords are buying up all the property to rent out back to them at exorbitant rents. It’s no wonder these Millennials are lashing out at buy to let landlords, as they are seen as the greedy, immoral, wicked people who are cashing in on a social despair.

Like all things in life, we must look to the past, to appreciate where we are now.

The three biggest influencing factors on the Burgess Hill (and UK) property market in the latter half of the 20th Century were, firstly, the mass building of Council Housing in the 1950’s and 60’s. Secondly, for the Tory’s to sell most of those Council Houses off in the 1980’s and finally 15% interest rates in the early 1990’s which resulted in many houses being repossessed. It was these major factors that underpinned the housing crisis we have today in Burgess Hill.

To start with, in 1995 the USA relaxed its lending rules by rewriting the Community Reinvestment Act. This Act saw a relaxation on the Bank’s lending criteria’s as there was pressure on these banks to lend on mortgages in low wage neighbourhoods, as the viewpoint in the USA was that anyone (even someone on the minimum wage) any working class person should be able to buy a home.  Unsurprisingly, the UK followed suit in the early 2000’s, as Banks and Building Society’s relaxed their lending criteria and brought to the market 100% mortgages, even Northern Rock started lending every man and his dog 125% mortgages.

So when we roll the clock forward to today, and we can observe those very same footloose banks from the early/mid 2000’s (that lent 125% with a just note from your Mum and a couple of breakfast cereal tokens), ironically reciting the Bank of England backed hymn-sheet of responsible-lending. On every first time buyer mortgage application, they are now looking at every line on the 20-something’s banks statements, asking if they are spending too much on socialising and holidays. No wonder these Millennials are afraid to ask for a mortgage (as more often than not after all that – the answer is negative).

Conversely, you have unregulated Buy to Let mortgages. As long as you have a 25% deposit, have a pulse, pass a few very basic yardsticks and have a reasonable job, the banks will literally throw money at you. I mean Virgin Money is offering 2.99% fixed for 3 years – so cheap!

So, in Part Two next week, I will continue this emotive article and show you some very interesting findings on why young people aren’t buying property anymore (and it’s not what you think!).

Tuesday 24 January 2017

Burgess Hill Property Market Sees An Unpredicted Autumn Boost of 175%.



Well, it doesn’t seem like two minutes ago that it was Christmas – and now it’s all over! One cold December morning, after arranging the office’s Christmas cards I thought I would nip out for a quick festive coffee in Quench in Burgess Hill high street.  I met an old client of mine in Quench and we got talking about the Burgess Hill property market. I had just completed my research for my next blog article and I would like to share with you the parts of the conversation relating to the Burgess Hill property market.

He asked me what my thoughts were about the last half of the year in regard to the Burgess Hill property market and if there were any great buy to let deals around. In reply I said that, in my view, shrugging off the uncertainty of the initial post Brexit vote, I have seen an increase in supply and a rise in the number of properties selling at the lower to middle end of the market, meaning both first time buyers and buy to let landlords have been returning in the last few months – proof the market is beginning to bounce back.

So let’s look at the numbers;

In November 2016, according to the three main property portals (Rightmove, Zoopla and OnTheMarket) there were a total of 231 properties for sale in Burgess Hill (within 2 miles of the centre of Burgess Hill to be exact). In November 2015, there were only 84 properties for sale, a rise of 175%.

When I split it down into bedrooms (note things like building plots and part commercial/part residential etc. won’t be in these figures so the numbers below wont exactly match up to those in the above paragraph).


# Properties on the market in Nov 2015
# Properties on the market in Nov 2016
Per cent Change
5+ Bedrooms
16
19
+19%
4 Bedrooms
29
86
+197%
3 Bedrooms
21
70
+233%
2 Bedrooms
13
43
+231%
1 Bedroom
4
13
+225%


 
Then when I looked at type of properties, it got even more interesting;

Type of Property
# Properties on the market in Nov 2015
# Properties on the market in Nov 2016
Per cent Change
Detached
41
105
+156%
Semi
17
70
+312%
Terraced
6
13
+117%
Flat
11
35
+218%

As the number of Burgess Hill properties put up for sale has soared by 175%, homeowners have become more realistic about how much their homes are worth. This increase in homeowners wanting to sell suggests there is renewed confidence in the Burgess Hill property market and there are also signs that people are being more realistic about pricing their property.

As you can see, there has been a significant uplift in flats and semi-detached properties, which means there is greater choice for first time buyers and landlords. So with a combination of realistic pricing and more properties on the market – both first time buyers and landlords alike might be able to pick up a few bargains!

Tuesday 17 January 2017

Mid Sussex property price rises set to be more restrained in 2017 due to Brexit.



While Brexit has not yet had a sizeable impact on the Mid Sussex housing market, my analysis is pointing to the fact that the economic viewpoint still remains uncertain and Mid Sussex property price growth is likely to be more subdued in 2017 - although that isn’t a bad thing so let me explain.
 
Since the summer, apart from a little wobble of uncertainty a few weeks after the Referendum vote, property values (and the economy), on the whole has outperformed what most people were anticipating. In fact, when I looked at the property prices for our Mid Sussex District Council area, these were the results;

October 2016          - drop of 0.42%
September 2016      - rise of 0.33%
August 2016            - rise of 0.36%
July 2016                - rise of 0.99%
June 2016               - rise of 2.63%.



The UK property market continues to perform robustly (because we can’t just look at Mid Sussex as if in its own little bubble) with annual price growth set to end this year at 6.91% and most South East region property market at 9.1%.

Talking to fellow agents in London, the significant tidal wave of growth seen from 2013 through to 2015 in the capital has subdued over the last six months. However, as that central London house price wave has started to ripple out, agents are starting to see stronger property growth values in East Anglia and the South East regions outside of London, than what is being seen within the M25. So, fellow Mid Sussex landlords and homeowners, is this the time to get your surfboards ready for the London wave?

Well, we in Mid Sussex haven’t really been affected by what is happening in the central London property mega bubble (i.e. Kensington, Chelsea, Marylebone, Mayfair etc.). The property market locally is more driven by sentiment, especially the ‘C’ word, confidence. The main forces for a weaker Mid Sussex Property market relate to economic uncertainty surrounding the Brexit process, which I believe will impact unhelpfully on consumer confidence in the run up to and just after the triggering of Article 50 by the end of Q1 2017.

In addition, the influence of reforms to the taxation of landlords is expected to result in a reduced demand from buy to let landlords, which will limit upward pressure on property values. However, on the other side of the coin, demand from tenants has been strong, but this has been counterbalanced by a strong supply of rental properties. In my opinion, there is a slight risk of rents not growing as much in 2017 as they have in 2016, but by 2018 they will rise again to counteract Philip Hammond’s changes to tenant fees.

The broader Mid Sussex rental market looks relatively positive with modest rental growth expected and rents might rise further if landlords begin to sell properties in an effort to offset to the impact of tax rises.

So what do I predict will happen to the Mid Sussex housing market in 2017?  In Mid Sussex, I believe price values are expected to fall by 2.3% in 2017 compared to a rise of 10.23% last year, then pick up to growth of 1.9% in 2018, 3.1% in 2019, then 4.2% in 2020 and 6.5% in 2021.

But these predictions do not take into account any effect of a possible snap General Election or further referendum on ratifying any Brexit deal (if that comes to pass in the future).